The RAM crisis could be the end for Chinese Ultra flagships

Leaker Digital Chat Station shared on Weibo that the next generation of Android Ultra flagships might have been discontinued.

The leak is vague, but leaker Ice Universe has a longer post on X with some more details.

Ice Universe mentions that “more than one Chinese brand” is reportedly considering pausing the next generation of its Ultra flagship. However, the leaker doesn’t mention which Chinese brand, so it could be any of OPPO, vivo, or Xiaomi, as these three have the most prominent Ultra flagships.

In China, these Ultra flagships aren’t sold in large enough volumes. Instead of sales volume and profits, their primary purpose of existence is to flex the manufacturer’s camera hardware and software capabilities. As such, the entire budget for an Ultra flagship goes into the camera system, with other components contributing less to the bill of materials.

With the rising RAM and memory prices, Android brands are forced to make tough decisions. Cutting corners on an Ultra flagship doesn’t make sense, since it won’t remain an Ultra flagship anymore.

The other logical solution is to raise prices, but that comes with its own problems. If phones cross the CNY 10,000 (~$1,465) price mark, they enter the Samsung Ultra and iPhone territory, where they cannot compete, as it is often less about specs and more about brand value at that point. Higher prices would thus bring substantially lower sales at the same (or even lower) profit margins, which may not be enough to tip the breakeven point, potentially leading to a loss.

Thus, pausing development of Android Ultra flagships is seen as the rational move for now, as it reserves the fighting chance for later when prices would eventually stabilize. Alternatively, the leaker suggests that Ultra flagships could adopt a balanced approach rather than a purely camera-focused one — though I don’t see how this solves the issue, since it won’t remain an Ultra flagship.

So far, no Android brand has mentioned its next-generation Ultra flagships. The Xiaomi 17 Ultra has been around for a while, but the vivo X300 Ultra just launched recently, and the OPPO Find X9 Ultra is due to launch this month. So there’s plenty of time left before these Android brands start talking about their next flagships. We should hear from the supply chain through leakers before that, so fingers crossed for good news.